[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA ALONG COASTAL WEST
AFRICA NEAR 9N14W TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT
TO 7N29W TO 5N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N
BETWEEN 18W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF. TO THE NW...A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDING TO TEXAS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.
IT WAS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NW MEXICO...AND AS
A COLD FRONT FROM 27N105W TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W
TO 30N88W. SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 23N94W
TO 30N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 26N. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT PREVAILS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TROUGH WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT
PREVAILS S OF THE TROUGH. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SW
GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THOSE PORTIONS
OF THE BASIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION
AS IT MOVES E. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE
GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
19N83W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NE ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THIS MOMENT...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG 82W...BETWEEN 19N-22N.
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. DRIER AIR
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LIMITING CONVECTION. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE S GULF.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS EASTWARD WHILE
LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ITS
AXIS NE REACHING THE W ATLANTIC. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS NEAR 45W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N52W TO
31N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
FRONT. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE
AND TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-
28N BETWEEN 44W-47W. N OF 30N...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER
THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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