[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA ALONG COASTAL WEST
AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N16W TO
7N30W TO 5N42W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO
11N BETWEEN 16W AND 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N TO 8N BETWEEN 29W TO 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS INCLUDING TEXAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N90N ACROSS THE NW GULF TO 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM ALONG AND SE OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25
KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM
NEAR 31N95 TO NEAR 25N93W. BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N. S OF
THE TROUGH...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRODUCING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. A
GALE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF AND OVER THE SW GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
IT ADVANCES ACROSS THOSE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP IN THE NE GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N83W. ALTHOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ABUNDANT...SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE IS PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE W CARIBBEAN N
OF 13N INSIDE THE MOIST AIRMASS...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE THAT IS PROGRESSING
NW TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. DRIER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN
IS HELPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE WESTERN
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING GULF LOW
...AND ACROSS THE SW BASIN NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPANDING EASTWARD WHILE
LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN HAS AN AXIS
THAT EXTENDS NE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS NEAR 45W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N70W TO 26N50W TO 31N37W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT. A AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 28N
BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. MULTIPLE CENTERS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DOMINATE THE BASIN S OF 31N WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE E
CONUS COAST AND OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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