[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
A SQUALL LINE FROM 31N86W TO 27N97W. GALE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 24/00Z AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE
GULF. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT
IN THE SW GULF. SEE THE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N32W TO 4N46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 18W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM ARIZONA TO
OKLAHOMA AND CONNECTED TO A 993 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 37N96W.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED FROM 30N89W TO 25N93W. TO THE E...THE COMBINATION OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND LOW AND THE DEEP MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE N GULF IS SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE LOCATED FROM
31N86W TO 27N87W. GALE FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY THIS SQUALL LINE
AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 83W-86W.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 26N...10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO THE S GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SQUALL LINE TO EXIT THE BASIN WHILE
DISSIPATING. THE COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE U.S. WILL ENTER
THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N82W. DRY AIR AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO IT. TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE ISLAND. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER IS
PREVAILING. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A 995 MB LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR 33N91W EXTENDING ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM
THAT POINT INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF THIS BOUNDARY N OF 30N BETWEEN 72W-79W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N70W TO 28N47W. FROM THAT
POINT ON...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT INTO THE NE
ATLANTIC NEAR 42N24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY N OF 32N. TO THE N OF
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN N OF 28N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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