[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 6N19W AND 6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO
6N38W AND 5N53W AT THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 180
NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N13W 7N25W 7N40W 7N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH IS
SURROUND BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COVER THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF...
KGVX...KXIH...KVBS...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGBK...KVQT...
KGHB...KATP...KMDJ...AND KIKT...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG COVER
THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND
FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA. CLOUD CEILINGS
RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 6000 FEET TO 8000 FEET FROM THE FORT MYERS
METROPOLITAN AREA TO NAPLES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N60W TO 30N64W...TO THE BAHAMAS AND ANDROS
ISLAND...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM 20N85W TO 16N88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM
21N80W TO 18N84W AND 16N86W AT THE COAST OF HONDURAS.
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAIN ARE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N64W 25N73W 23N80W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 13N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W
CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N
IN VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 52W AND 59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
55W AND 61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 63W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N80W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN
66W AND 84W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.78 IN HAVANA
CUBA...0.87 IN CURACAO...0.40 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.15 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
12N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE
COASTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OF WESTERN PANAMA AND
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE MOVING THROUGH THE BORDER
SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N80W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
13N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W
CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N
IN VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 17N80W
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS MERGING WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND THEN MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BETWEEN THE 14N63W CYCLONIC CENTER AND
JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED
IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THE WIND FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO A
POSITION THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CANARY
ISLAND 15N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N20W...TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND 13N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
13N30W 16N40W AND 18N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT RUNS FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 10W AND 11W FROM MOROCCO TO
THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO MAURITANIA. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 30N16W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 7W AND 17W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.35 IN
BERMUDA.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N43W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 70W...AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N60W 29N67W...
BEYOND 23N80W IN CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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