[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 8N18W AND 6N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N24W TO
6N38W AND 7N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THIS TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM
MEXICO FROM 17N TO 25N...ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
RUNS FROM A SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...
TO 26N94W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INLAND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KXIH...
KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KATP...KEIR...AND KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. A
LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN MARATHON KEY IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 14N63W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 15N62W CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 8N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 72W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG
IS ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 32N64W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO
16N87W AT THE HONDURAS COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS...BETWEEN 85W AND 88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 19N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND LAND.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...MAINLY
FROM 12N TO 18N.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.29 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 8N IN COLOMBIA TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W IN THE PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE
COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 14N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BETWEEN
THE 14N63W CYCLONIC CENTER AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...BEING
TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N67W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 29N67W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
25N77W AND ANDROS ISLAND...CURVING ACROSS CUBA ALONG 22N81W...TO
20N84W...AND TO NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 26N71W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N64W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO 16N87W AT THE
HONDURAS COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
BETWEEN 85W AND 88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 19N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND LAND.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 12N32W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO SOUTHERN
MOROCCO...THROUGH THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 21N20W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 70W...AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N60W 29N67W...
BEYOND 23N80W IN CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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