[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 8N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N31W TO NEAR 7N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 16W-22W AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
45W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND INTO THE N GULF OF
MEXICO N OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE E OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA
ALONG 23N85W TO THE E TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF S OF
27N LEAVING MOST OF THE N GULF CLEAR THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER SE
ALABAMA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE NE GULF TO THE SW
GULF THROUGH FRI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NW GULF LATE FRI AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR SANTA CLARA ALONG 20N85W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N82W TO INLAND OVER E
HONDURAS TO NEAR 15N86W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 16N82W COVERING ALL BUT THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS E CUBA TO
OVER THE W ATLC AND SW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W TO THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N77W ALONG 10N81W TO ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N W OF 79W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 64W UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY THU.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES THU THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH
SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE S COAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH KEEP THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N63W TO
29N68W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W TO ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR SANTA CLARA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF
LINE FROM VERO BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N73W TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH OVER SE ALABAMA AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SE NORTH
CAROLINA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS E CUBA ALONG 26N62W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N60W COVERING
THE AREA FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 55W-64W INCLUDING THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N19W TO 18N28W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N12W E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
22N17W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 20N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
31N45W. W ATLC FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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