[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

 ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 6N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N37W 7N48W TO 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 18W-30W...FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 31W-46W AND FROM 8N-12N W OF 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN
TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE GULF WITH NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN
THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA SW INTO THE GULF ALONG 25N81W TO 22N86W TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 17N92W. A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL...EASTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ATLC SUPPORT THIS FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
THE BASIN TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR INHIBIT CONVECTION N OF 23N. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BEING
GENERATED BY A AN ELONGATED ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN ALONG MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE S-SE CONUS. WINDS TURN E-NE AND SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN
25 KT BY THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXCEPT FOR THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN BASIN...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER-
LEVELS...AN ELONGATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED WEST OF
JAMAICA GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT ALONG LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 22N83W TO WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W. THIS CONVECTION
EXTENDS WITHIN 160 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH AND 250 NM EAST OF IT.
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...A 1011 MB LOW IS JUST EAST OF THE BORDER
BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N W OF 80W. IN THE NW BASIN...E-NE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ABOUNDS WHILE TRADES OF 20 KT DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE S-SE GULF
WILL BE ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...THUS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. BY THU MORNING...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER WESTERN-CENTRAL CUBA SW TO NORTHERN
BELIZE...DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN CUBA FRIDAY MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS SUPPORT
FAIR WEATHER...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH WED EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL...EASTERN
CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORT A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 30N75W SW TO 26N80W...ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO
THE S-SE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
ANALYZED FROM 31N69W TO 26N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE N OF 27N W OF 73W. AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING SW
INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC...THUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ALONG
30N18W TO 25N36W TO 25N52W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE
N OF 21N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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