[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Nov 18 00:05:35 CST 2014

AXNT20 KNHC 180604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 29N83W TO 19N93W.
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 TO 16 FEET TO THE SOUTH
OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO GALE-FORCE WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 14 FEET...HIGHEST NEAR
25N94W...ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 9N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N23W TO
7N34W 5N45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL...AND ENDING IN SOUTHERN
FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 3N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 7N11W 7N30W 7N40W 9N50W 11N54W 11N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W...THROUGH
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE AT LEAST IN THE 30S IN MANY
LOCATIONS ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COAST. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN
30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N70W 30N73W 28N75W 27N75W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AND INTO MEXICO AND GUATEMALA WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W 28N81W 23N86W 19N91W
AND 16N93W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED ALSO IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KEMK...KHQI...
KGBK...KGHB...KATP...KGRY...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA-SAINT PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN
AREA...TO THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND TO NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...BECOMING EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN
70W AND 80W...AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
FROM 80W WESTWARD. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...MAINLY
TO THE NORTH OF 11N62W 13N70W 15N80W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.17 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 7N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS COLOMBIA/
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 86W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N61W AND 21N62W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 27N64W 23N70W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF JAMAICA...TO 18N79W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 30 NM
TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W
30N61W 28N62W 26N64W 24N67W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO
WESTERN JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL START TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...AND IT WILL END
UP IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST RIDGE THAT WILL RUN
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT BROAD EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 22N20W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150
NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N12W 27N14W 24N23W 23N29W 20N45W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N28W 27N40W TO 24N53W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO
30N30W 27N40W AND 26N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 28N26W 25N40W 25N48W 26N55W...
BEYOND 30N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N19W TO 28N26W 25N40W 25N48W 26N55W...BEYOND 30N60W. A
BRANCH OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
22N36W TO 20N43W 17N52W 14N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 46W AND 52W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N68W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
AND EVENTUALLY TO EL SALVADOR.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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