[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER NW GULF WATERS EXTENDS
FROM SE LOUISIANA AT 29N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W MOVING
SE. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF FRONT UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 6N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 3N36W TO 5N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N
BETWEEN 10W-20W...AND FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 33W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA
AT 29N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W MOVING SE. GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF FRONT. 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SE OF
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT N OF 26N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS SE OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE BASE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION AND
GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 22N W OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA
...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 77W-84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 18N ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N76W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO SPREAD OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS PROVIDES FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN SOME REGIONS OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTED BY A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE REGION IS FORECAST TO FAVOR FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N41W TO 24N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N46W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 37W-43W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW
COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE SW N ATLC FROM 31N77W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AT 28N80W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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