[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
MORNING...13/1200 UTC. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF...THE
COLD FRONT FROM 29N83W TO 25N94W TO 19N95.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 13 FEET FROM 22N
TO 25N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA WITHOUT REACHING THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER
SECTIONS OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 6N22W 4N30W
AND 4N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 6N TO 15N. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
19N53W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE ITCZ. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 9W AND 13W
IN PARTS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N24W
11N36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N86W. MOISTURE
AT DIFFERENT LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS WITHIN 400 TO 475 NM TO
THE NORTH OF 21N97W 24N90W 26N85W 27N80W...COVERING THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 22N98W...AND THEN IT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
MEXICO...AND BEYOND THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS. THE FRONT IS RELATED
TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NOT REACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO OR THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MULTILAYERED
MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF 19N94W 22N94W
25N87W 27N83W.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE COLD
FRONT EASTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG AND KBBF
WITH A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AT EACH SITE...
KGVX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL WITH A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS
AND FOG...KHQI...KVBS...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR WITH A VISIBILITY OF
1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG...KSPR WITH A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR
LESS AND FOG...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. LIGHT RAIN IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE
MOBILE ALABAMA METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
FOUND NEAR MILTON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N66W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO
15N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND 14N70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
26N70W...ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
19N79W BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
19N79W TO 18N82W AND 16N84W. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG
32N72W 28N74W...TO 26N78W IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ISOLATED
MODERATE AROUND AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN
HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...AND FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 81W AND
84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N86W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 64W EASTWARD.
THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH...THAT EXTENDS FROM A 19N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 13N55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO 6N57W NEAR THE
COASTAL BORDERS OF GUYANA AND SURINAME.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N75W 12N77W 9N79W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 79W AND
81W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 75W
AND 83W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N72W IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...THROUGH COLOMBIA...TO 9.5N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.28 IN
TRINIDAD...AND 0.16 IN BERMUDA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N66W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO
15N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND 14N70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
26N70W...ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
19N79W BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
19N79W TO 18N82W AND 16N84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ISOLATED MODERATE AROUND AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA.
A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-MONA
PASSAGE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL START IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND IT WILL END UP BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA.
THIS IS RELATED TO A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN JUST
TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N77W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND INTO
THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY
FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N78W...TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BEYOND 32N79W. A COLD FRONT THAT IS PART
OF THE SAME FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND...TO THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 73W/74W...FROM 14N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 27N IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N BEYOND
32N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND
75W...INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N34W TO 25N41W
23N47W...TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N53W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE 19N53W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N55W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND TO 6N57W NEAR THE COASTAL BORDERS OF GUYANA AND
SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND
53W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 17N TO 27N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N41W 28N44W 25N47W. THIS TROUGH HAS
BEEN SHOWING UP WELL IN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 39W AND 48W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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