[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat Nov 8 12:00:16 CST 2014

AXNT20 KNHC 081759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA WITHOUT REACHING THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 8N16W 5N24W 8N36W AND 8N52W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 21W AND 26W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W...AND FROM 7N
TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING IN THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO ARE WELL TO
THE NORTH OF 32N AT THIS MOMENT. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM CUBA NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND AWAY FROM THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 20N70W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N65W.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 31N65W...
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND CURVING TO 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N95W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ALONG 28N68W 24N71W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.18 IN
BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ITS WAY
INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF 18N94W 23N90W 25N80W...ALSO REACHING
PARTS OF THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS STATES. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 25N NORTHWARD
TO FLORIDA BETWEEN 80W AND 89W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE CLOUDINESS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.79 IN
MONTERREY IN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED
AT...KIPN...KIKT...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AT THIS MOMENT.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N65W...TO SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N64W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N55W 13N58W 14N61W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 17N60W 17N62W 16N63W 14N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 53W AND 68W.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N93W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. A RIDGE
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM 14N93W TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND
14N80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM COSTA RICA AND 10N NORTHWARD...FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD. THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPERIENCING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE 20N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 3.48 IN
GUADELOUPE...3.31 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.28 IN KINGSTON
IN JAMAICA...0.24 IN CURACAO...AND 0.17 IN TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 6N79W...TO
8N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND BEYOND 7N88W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF
URABA OF COLOMBIA...AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N70W...ABOUT 50 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW ENCOMPASSES HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ON
TOP OF HAITI AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ALSO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 28N68W 24N71W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF HAITI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W...AND AN
ISOLATED CELL OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 14N67W.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...A SEPARATE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN LA ROMANA.
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 20N70W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THEN DISSIPATE...WITH THE WHOLE FEATURE
OPENING INTO A TROUGH AND PUSHING EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL
END UP BEING MORE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE ENDS UP CROSSING ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST TIME. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 20N70W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE WHOLE FEATURE
OPENING INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
RIDGE ENDS UP CROSSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST TIME. THE 700 MB GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS WIND FLOW WILL BE RELATED TO A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AT
THIS MOMENT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N38W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 56W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N30W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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