[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 9N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 7N30W TO 7N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
4N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST W OF THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND
29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W
AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N90W TO 24N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 24N95W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18N95W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT W OF 85W. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 28N99W WITH ZONAL FLOW
AND A SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE GULF JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20N91W WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.
10-15 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 19N74W INTO THE W
ATLANTIC. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 110 NM OF THIS TROUGH. FARTHER
EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N64W ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC TO NEAR 19N63W. THIS
TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH WHERE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W INCLUDING MUCH
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS DEEP CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS NE
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR OVER 200 NM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE IN THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE W ATLANTIC WITH
ONGOING DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N68W TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 20N74. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO DISCUSSED IN
THE CARIBBEAN SECTION EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO NEAR 19N63W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. A LARGE 1030 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 38N32W AND COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER E OF
55W BETWEEN 12N AND 31N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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