[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N77W TO 09N77W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TPW AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS FEATURE AS DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS ALSO IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE LIMITING ANY ACTIVITY.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC AT 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 07N27W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
07N27W TO 08N35W...THEN RESUMES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR 10N42W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 06N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-11N...W OF 17W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-14N BETWEEN 19W-31W
AND FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 43W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN US NEAR 32N84W AND
EXTENDING TO THE GULF...PRODUCING 10 TO 15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF BY MID-
WEEK ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC NEAR
21N65W ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA AT 18N71W AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN
AT 14N83W. NE SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE PREVAILING ACROSS
THE BASIN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THE
NICARAGUA COAST AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS S OF 14N...W OF
82W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA
EXTENDING FROM 18N69W TO 13N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT SE WATERS FROM
16N-18N BETWEEN 63W-67W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A
TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC IS TO DIG S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TO A
SHEAR LINE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES W WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
FRONT TO SHIFT EAST OF THE ISLAND WHILE DISSIPATING TO A SHEAR
LINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 30N58W TO
21N55W. N TO NW SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NW OF THE FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT E-SE FLOW PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM OF THE
FRONT. TO THE E...A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N35W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF 51W N OF 23N. AN UPPER
LOW IS NEAR 21N45W ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 39W-
45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 13N36W TO 08N36W. SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-21N BETWEEN 32W-38W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO 30N55W TO 20N65W
WITH CONVECTION MAINLY AHEAD OF IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


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