[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
30W/31W S OF 9N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN DUST OUTBREAK NOTED ON METEOSAT PSEUDO
NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 27W-32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 08N MOVING NEAR 15 KT. DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED ON IR
SHORTWAVE IMAGERY ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 04N TO 06N.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS RACING OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITHIN 30 NM OF
LINE FROM 04N46W TO 04N50W. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST WILL BRING THE
WAVE TO INLAND EASTERN VENEZUELA AND GUYANA...ATTENDANT BY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN
WITH AXIS ALONG 69W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF THE WAVE TO
64W. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT
WILL COME UNDER A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT
THAT WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT...IF
ANY...TO A MINIMUM.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG
79W/80W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. IT IS PRESENTLY ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 10N BETWEEN
78W-82W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA S
OF THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
ASSOCIATED TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO MAINLY FROM
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA ON SOUTHWARD AS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
ACTIVITY TO AT MOST ISOLATED IN CONVERGE N OF SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N14W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO 5N29W. THE ITCZ
RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N30W TO 3N43W...THEN AGAIN W
OF A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N43W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA
NEAR 0N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...ISOLATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-26W...AND ALSO S OF 02N W OF
41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS ELSEWHERE FROM 01N TO
07N W OF 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N TO 05N E OF 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVELS...THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA OF
MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE MUCH OF THE GULF. A JET STREAM IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM NE TEXAS AT 28N97W SE TO THE NE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NW WINDS
OF 60-90 KT SW OF THIS JET STREAM BRANCH ARE ADVECTING DEBRIS
MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS...FROM EARLIER
DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER EASTERN MEXICO SEWD TO THE S
CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA. A PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING
AROUND IT. ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW OF 1009 MB IS OVER
NORTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 32N92W WITH A TROUGH SW TO LAKE
CHARLES...AND CONTINUING SW TO 28N95W. LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOW SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. ELSEWHERE AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD ROUGHLY
ALONG 30N AND W TO NEAR 88W. THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE IS
ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY SE 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE A LITTLE STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALLOWING FOR S 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
W OF THE TROUGH. THE DEEP LAYER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEAK RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF WILL DESTABILIZE ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
DEVELOP. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS....THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER
GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA W OF ABOUT 80W.
STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE IS SENDING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS...SEWD TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ROUGHLY
ALONG 75W. SW FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MAINLY OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEWD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TO THE SE OF A LINE FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 12N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST W OF HAITI. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 35W
AND 58W WITH THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE CENTER AT 10N52W. TO ITS
E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF 09N.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N61W
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO
HISPANIOLA. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH A 60-90 KT WIND MAX
EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NE TO 24N57W...AND TO 27N47W.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A 360 NM WIDE BAND OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE S OF THE JET...AND
STREAMING EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER
IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 34N29W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 32N40W TO 28N50W TO 26N69W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER AND NEAR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


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