[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 08N...WITH AN ESTIMATED
MOTION OF NEAR 16 KT. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE AN INVERTED-V SHAPE PATTERN TO THE LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 39W
AND 42W.  THE 700 MB GFS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTLE NE
TO SE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 03N TO 04N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE RECENTLY PASSED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH ITS AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 14N62W TO INLAND VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W...MOVING W
AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EARLIER
OBSERVED INLAND OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA HAS JUST ABOUT DIMINISHED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 14N MOVING W ABOUT 17 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE OVER
NW COLOMBIA WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
09N14W TO 06N18W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
CONTINUES TO 04N25W TO 03N37W. THE AXIS RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE
NEAR 02N40W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 11W AND 15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM-150 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER SE GEORGIA WITH A RIDGE SW TO NEAR
28N98W. SE-S 10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED SW OF THE RIDGE. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE WEAK
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE CONFINED TO S OF 27N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
AGAIN OVER THE FAR NW GULF DUE TO INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR NE TEXAS. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SEWD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF...AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN
...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL
WAVES. ELSEWHERE 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY
E OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO COLOMBIA AT 11N74W. ABUNDANT
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ALSO E OF THIS LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INLAND
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W PRODUCING NW FLOW
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI
SW TO NW COLOMBIA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO HELP ENHANCE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SEA AS
IT CONTINUES WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI SW TO NW COLOMBIA...AND
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINS
MINIMAL ACROSS THE ISLAND TO ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED. DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THAT AREA AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE MAY APPROACH THE SE PART OF THE ISLAND LATE WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N55W WITH A
RIDE EXTENDING WSW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N55W
TO NEAR 29N52W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR
34N27W WITH A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 28N46W. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN RATHER STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC E OF ABOUT 50W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED NEWD TO THE N OF 16N BETWEEN 40W AND
61W TO THE E...AND SE OF A STRONG JET STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CARIBBEAN TROUGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 26N68W WITH A
TROUGH SW TO HAITI. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NE OF
THE AREA AT 32N56W. THE LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W. TO THE E OF THIS
TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 35W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF
20N E OF 35W...HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT PRESENT THERE ARE
ALSO KEEPING STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THAT PART OF THE ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE

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