[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 11N15W TO 2N15W. WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...A MORE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE WINDS IS BEING NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BULGE OF MODERATE TO
HIGH MOISTURE WHICH IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 1N-12N BETWEEN 10W-20W. THE WAVE IS PROJECTED TO
CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AT 10-15 KT.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 9N-41W TO 2N42W WHICH IS MOVING NEAR 10-15
KT. BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW AN INVERTED-V
PATTERN OF THE WINDS...PARTICULARLY AT 700 HPA WHERE THE
TROPICAL WAVES HAVE THEIR STRONGEST SIGNAL. EVEN THAT THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT
ACCORDING TO SSMI TPW IMAGERY...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL
WIND SHEAR IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED MAINLY ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE
WESTERNMOST PART OF THE AXIS EXTENDING TO 9N14W. THE ITCZ AXIS
BEGINS WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG
0N30W TO 1N37W. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE FROM
1N42W TO 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 1S-6N BETWEEN 19W-39W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N
W OF 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF THUS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
29N88W. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROVIDING WINDS OF 5 KT OVER THE NE
GULF AND E-SE WIND OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER
AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE WHOLE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WEST ATLC AND
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 23N68W TO 19N70W. A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
HISPANIOLA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA AS WELL JAMAICA. DEEP
LAYER HIGH MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN WHICH
ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 16N
BETWEEN W OF 78W. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF NE
COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS HISPANIOLA POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLOODING
THREATS.

...HISPANIOLA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N68W TO 19N70W BEING SUPPORTED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. A MODERATE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT STALL. DUE TO THE
CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
EXCEPT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH DISCUSSED IN THE PRIOR TWO
SECTIONS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N52W TO
27N56W...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 13N.
SURFACE RIDGING IS BEING ANCHORED BY THREE HIGHS...A 1020 MB
HIGH JUST N OF FREEPORT NEAR 27N78W...A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N56W
AND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 40N33W. THE ONLY AREA OF CONVECTION
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 25N BETWEEN
63W-76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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