[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS FROM 15N18W TO 10N19W HAS DISSIPATED. THE
SOUTH PORTION OF THE WAVE MAY MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC LATER
TODAY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 1N25W 1N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 38W BETWEEN 2N-9N. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 8W-19W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO
TO ALONG THE MEXICO/TEXAS COAST TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 93W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC AND
A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W. CLEAR SKIES COVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AGAIN THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NE AND N/CENTRAL GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW OVER THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THIS UPPER
JET CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO ACROSS HONDURAS NEAR 20N71W
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...THE E TIP OF
CUBA...PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. DUE TO THE
CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG 9N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
BETWEEN 76W-83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER
THE ISLAND AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE WESTERLY UPPER JET WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE ISLAND FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRI. DUE TO THE CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N52W AND
EXTENDS TO 28N57W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 26N68W. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N59W ALONG 23N65W TO 21N70W.
WESTERLY UPPER JET THAT REMAINS FROM ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 65W-75W INCLUDING THE E TIP
OF CUBA AND ALL OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 22N68W TO BEYOND 32N48W. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N63W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG 30N WILL SHIFT S ALONG 27N AND WEAKEN LATE TODAY
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NW ATLC TONIGHT
AND DISSIPATE BY FRI NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SE
THROUGH W ATLC N OF 27N SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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