[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OFF
AFRICA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER-AIR TIME SECTION FROM DAKAR AND
THE TPW ANIMATION BOTH INDICATE A BULGE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA THAT COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL
WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 21/1200 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. THE WAVE
IS ALONG 17W/18W FROM 10N TO 15N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 22W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 7N12W TO 3N15W. THE CONTINUES FROM 3N15W...TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 19W...TO 1S22W...TO THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 29W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN AFRICA AND THE
COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 3W AND 17W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 8N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA...WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N64W...TO
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N81W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...TO 28N90W...TO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWARD BEYOND NORTHERN LOUISIANA ALONG 92W.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 26N97W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N60W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N72W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO A
1024 MB GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...BEYOND 31N95W IN EAST TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 88W FROM 25N TO 28N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ALSO IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MOVING AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N97W
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. STATION KGUL IS REPORTING A CLOUD
CEILING AT 6500 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 26N64W...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N81W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N66W...TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N69W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS...AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 24N60W 21N70W...TO
17N80W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N89W IN WESTERN
HONDURAS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.21 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N76W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
TO 8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO THE COAST BETWEEN
71W AND 74W. SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 8N WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 76W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 26N64W...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N81W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N66W...TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N69W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS...AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 24N60W 21N70W...TO
17N80W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N89W IN WESTERN
HONDURAS.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAIN AND
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO AND
IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER BARAHONA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS
AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVERS PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS-TO CUBA
TROUGH ALONG 80W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER EITHER RIGHT ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA OR CLOSE TO
IT. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N62W...TO 26N64W...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
20N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N56W TO 31N57W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N57W TO
28N60W AND 27N63W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
27N63W TO 27N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH 26N59W 22N63W 21N66W...TO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N69W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ARE
WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N45W 28N46W 24N60W 21N70W...TO 17N80W IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N89W IN WESTERN HONDURAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N60W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N72W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO A
1024 MB GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...BEYOND 31N95W IN EAST TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 88W FROM 25N TO 28N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ALSO IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MOVING AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N97W
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 24N30W AND TO 14N40W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 22W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 30W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29W/30W FROM 2N TO 8N. IT HAS BEEN
DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 25N57W. A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 25N25W...AND TO THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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