[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 4N13W TO 2N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 17W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 8N29W TO 3N31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF
20W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 6N-11N E OF 21W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO
TO ALONG THE MEXICO/TEXAS COAST TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
GIVING MOST OF THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N92W TO 19N94W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC AND A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE
NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE W
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N
GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WESTERLY UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE
FROM ACROSS THE YUCATAN NEAR 17N88W ALONG 18N78W INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO...ALL OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA E OF 78W...JAMAICA...AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
9N/10N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N
BETWEEN 74W-82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE SE
CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER
THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ISLAND BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE FRI. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE AREA
BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS TO 27N64W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO
26N70W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N68W TO 21N73W.
WESTERLY UPPER JET REMAINS FROM ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W
ALONG 25N57W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC
W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N73W. A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED WELL N
OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 30N WILL SHIFT S ALONG 27N
AND WEAKEN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK E/W FRONT SAGS INTO
THE N WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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