[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
02N16W TO 02N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N22W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR TO 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 01W-05W...AND FROM 04N-10N
BETWEEN 10W-13W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N
BETWEEN 17W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N
BETWEEN 38W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING PROVIDING FOR VERY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH
CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS NOTED IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS
THE GULF FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTING
THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC REGION
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 13N94W THAT IS PROVIDING
DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS.
FARTHER EAST...THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIPS OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 18N BETWEEN 67W-75W WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND AREAS TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE TAIL END OF A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED
AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N62W TO 20N70W. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF
10 TO 20 KT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N62W TO 20N70W. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT STILL PROVIDING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 32N60W TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 20N73W. THE TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N48W EXTENDING SW TO 23N62W AND BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WEST OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018
MB HIGH CENTERED E-NE OF THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N75W. FINALLY...
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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