[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
04N20W TO 03N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 03N29W AND CONTINUES TO 02N40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 8W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
28N92W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE 5-10 KT OVER THE E GULF WHILE 10-
15 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF DUE TO A TIGHTER SURFACE
GRADIENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH A 70-90
KT JETSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO THE
NE GULF AT 28N85W IN 24 HOURS WITH MORE FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA FROM 22N77W TO 21N80W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AT
20N87W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N88W. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS...N
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W.
WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE TO
HISPANIOLA IN 24 HOURS WITH MORE SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY OVER HAITI. EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 25N70W TO
CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ON NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 20N W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTS. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-60W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N14W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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