[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR
25N95W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N81W TO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 24N84W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
E OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM N FLORIDA AT
30N82W TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT E WITH FAIR WEATHER WHILE THE COLD
FRONT COMPLETELY EXITS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

5-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA...THE WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 86W-90W TO INCLUDE BELIZE AND THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND
GUATEMALA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 80W WHILE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 80W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN...
DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER PANAMA
AND THE SW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ALSO OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC FROM
31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N81W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N47W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE
TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
31N31W TO 24N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT OFF
FLORIDA...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N E OF 35W IS
SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT THE NW ATLANTIC FRONT TO
MOVE E WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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