[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 5N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N19W 3N24W 1N32W TO 1N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 17W-19W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF LIBERIA BETWEEN 9W-11W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 22W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE
GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO E TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE IS A
REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 03/0300 UTC ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO NAPLES TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1012
MB LOW NEAR 25N86W WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S AND E OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NE GULF FROM JUST W OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR CEDAR KEY TO 27N84W. THE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE E GULF IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF LINE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH
JUST N OF TAMPICO MEXICO. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE
FRONT ON SAT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH THE FRONT E AGAIN ON SAT
WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY SUN.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF ON SAT AND
SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND ARE MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST. THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS HAVE GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 78W-82W INCLUDING
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS
TRANQUIL TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN. TRADE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME MON.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES OF REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED CLOUDS OVER
NW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND N HAITI. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
THE ISLAND SUN NIGHT INCREASING MOISTURE. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND MON GENERATING SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N76W ALONG
28N78W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FORT
LAUDERDALE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
45 NM ALONG THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS W OF THE
FRONT TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 40W-
75W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N48W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N31W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N33W TO 21N39W. W ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NE BECOMING STATIONARY FROM NEAR 31N75W
TO PALM BEACH SAT NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO E CUBA SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATING FROM 32N56W TO
HISPANIOLA MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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