[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO COASTAL NORTHERN
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W THEN INTO TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ALONG 02N13W
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 01S33W TO S OF
THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 05S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 08W-
21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 03S-03N W OF
35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE NE
BASIN COVERS THE SE CONUS...SW N ATLC AND GULF WATERS THUS
PROVIDING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FORMER COLD FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N AND EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BAHAMAS. THE
NE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN GULF WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS
SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. LOOKING AHEAD...THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NE GULF WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW
N ATLC WATERS LATER TONIGHT. ONCE OVER ATLC WATERS...THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT WHICH TAIL EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ENHANCING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-78W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 21N69W TO 18N71W FURTHER ENHANCES THE CONVECTION
OVER HISPANIOLA. DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT
FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
SURFACE PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADES. LOOKING AHEAD...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT N
OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING BUT REMNANT MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS MAINLY FOR HISPANIOLA THROUGH WED NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS TO EASTERN CUBA PUSHING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. A
SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N69W TO WESTERN-
CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FURTHER ENHANCES SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THIS REGION OF THE
ISLAND. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT N OF THE AREA BY TUE
MORNING BUT REMNANT MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS
MAINLY FOR HISPANIOLA THROUGH WED NIGHT.

ATLANTIC...
AN ELONGATED UPPER CYCLONE ACROSS THE NW ATLC AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM
30N62W SW TO 22N69W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE N OF 24N WITHIN 200 NM E
OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
IS OCCURRING OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AS DISCUSSED IN THE PRIOR
SECTIONS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
OTHERWISE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER ATLC ANCHORED BY
A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N45W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net