[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT AT 30/0300 UTC FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
FLORIDA BETWEEN SAINT AUGUSTINE AND TAMPA BAY THEN ALONG 24N87W
21N93W S TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SE GULF SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE
FROM 25N83W TO 23N86W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FURTHER TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 23N83W INTO THE W ATLC BEYOND
25N80W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH OVER MISSOURI. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SW
TO OVER MEXICO AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF
WATERS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MEXICO MOVING OVER THE W GULF FROM 24N-
28N W OF 96W. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF EARLY SUN.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN SHIFT EASTWARD MON THROUGH MID
WEEK ALLOWING MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF WATERS COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE NE
CARIBBEAN. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT S OF 13N. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES FROM PUERTO RICO TO CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WHERE THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS ADVECTING MOISTURE TO OVER THESE ISLANDS. THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SW HAITI FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 72W-74W. THESE TRADE WINDS
ARE ALSO BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF
81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS
THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY SUN AND BECOME A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO YUCATAN LATER IN THE DAY.

HISPANIOLA...
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW HAITI FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 72W-
74W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE SUN WHEN IT WILL
SHIFT TO SW TUE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN.
THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC SUN
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ISLAND LATE SUN INTO MON. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE LATE SUN AND
REMAIN THROUGH TUE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 30/0300 UTC
THROUGH 32N80W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR SAINT
AUGUSTINE. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM
31N74W THROUGH 25N80W INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 24N55W TO 17N57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 56W-63W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR E ATLC
NEAR 32N18W TO 30N22W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 28N30W WHERE A
SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED ALONG 27N35W TO 27N46W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC E OF 75W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1034 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUN THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE E
CONUS COAST AND WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA SUN
EVENING THEN BECOME A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N62W TO
HISPANIOLA MON. THE S PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE N OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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