[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC NEAR 36N52W AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 77W AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W
AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TO 01N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01N16W
AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 02S25W TO 03S39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE FROM 05S-06N E OF 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07S-04S BETWEEN 20W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
ON THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THUS PROVIDING SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10-20 KT E OF 90W. THESE WINDS
CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE N-NE GULF THUS FUELING  HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-90W THAT CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE N-NE GULF
AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-27N E OF 86W. A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0900 UTC EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW GULF ALONG
30N93W SW TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG 30N85W
TO 28N90W TO 26N94W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE SAT AND PASS SE OF THE
AREA ON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND A
SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT S OF 17N. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPRESSING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS. A MOIST AIRMASS IS ENTERING THE SE CARIBBEAN
AND SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A GALE
WARNING CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH AMERICA IS ALSO DRIVING TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN
MORNING. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND
BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND AT THE LOWER LEVELS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ADJACENT WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A FORMER
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE POOLS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SW N ATLC N OF 25N W OF 75W.
CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE AND WILL AMPLIFY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD EXPECTED TO ENTER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN
LATE SAT NIGHT. DIFFLUENCE EAST OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT
BETWEEN 50W-65W SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 47W-64W. OTHERWISE...THE ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 36N52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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