[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SE CONUS AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT THUS SUPPORTING NE TO E GALE FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS INLAND
NORTHWEST AFRICA. GALE FORCE N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING FROM
29N-32N BETWEEN 10W-13W ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. SEE LATEST
METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
02N20W TO 01N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 01N30W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 03S-06N E OF 13W...FROM
07S-05S BETWEEN 11W-22W AND FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 14W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER VIRGINIA
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AND PROVIDES SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20
KT. WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GULF. FURTHERMORE...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THIS
MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS N OF 25N. AS THE RIDGE IN PLACE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE E-NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SOUTHEASTERLY-SOUTHERLY WIND
IN THE RANGE OF 15-25 KT WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SUBSIDE TO 15 KT OR
LESS SAT MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS. EXCEPT FOR HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...THE
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE
BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE
SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS
SOUTHWARD TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT FROM 30N55W SW TO 24N61W TO
20N66W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ACROSS
NW HISPANIOLA INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N73W. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE FRONT IS ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. WEAKENING OF THE FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
TAKE PLACE AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATER
TODAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN AND IS
FORECAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
EXPERIENCING TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT.

...HISPANIOLA...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLAND.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORT A VIGOROUS
CYCLONE CENTERED OVER NE NOVA SCOTIA AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 43N49W SW
TO 30N55W 24N61W TO 20N66W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND THEN TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF
25N BETWEEN 53W-58W. THIS FRONT IS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SW N
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH
CAROLINA AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER VIRGINIA AND A BROAD RIDGE
COVERING THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 14N. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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