[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N17W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 42W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA TO ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO DOMINATING THE GULF. A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ALONG THE N GULF
COAST TO TEXAS COVERING THE GULF. THE SOUTHERN SURFACE FLOW IS
GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF FROM 24N-29N W OF 86W TO JUST INLAND
OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
SANTA CLARA CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N81W TO OVER
FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI THEN W OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH SUN WHEN A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF AND STRETCH FROM APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS SUN NIGHT AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO NE
MEXICO LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. SPEED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE WEAKER FLOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 13N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 75W-80W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SUN THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY LATE MON.

HISPANIOLA...
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND OVER HAITI AND THE W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER TODAY. SHOWERS COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND
THEN CLEARING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W
OF 73W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021
MB HIGH NEAR 32N76W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N58W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 27N62W TO 24N67W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N29W. FRONT/TROUGH WILL DRIFT
E AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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