[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W SW TO 5N20W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 80
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG
5N21W TO 2N32W TO 2N43W TO 0N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 3S-2N WEST OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA EXTENDS INTO THE GULF TO COVER MUCH OF THE BASIN AND
PROVIDE RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT. OVER THE SW GULF...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N93W TO 20N94W TO 17N93W. TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN HAVE BEEN ADVECTING REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE WESTERN GULF TO
SUPPORT LOW CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 26N W
OF 88W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. AT 1500 UTC THE AXIS OF
THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM 27N82W TO 25N80W AND ENHANCES SHOWERS ON THE SW
ATLC WATERS BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND FREEPORT. ELSEWHERE IN
THE GULF...FAIR WEATHER IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. LOOKING AHEAD...THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON SAT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS LATE ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WHILE A TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION. PATCHES OF RESIDUAL SURFACE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SW N ATLC
LINGER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS
MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. A MODERATE MOIST
AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH MAY ENHANCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS REACHING UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...LIGHTER TRADES OF 10 KT
DOMINATE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
CLOUDINESS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FORMER FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS CUBA. WITH AMPLE DRY AIR
ALOFT AS SEEN IN THE VAPOR IMAGERY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT A MINIMUM THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING.

ATLANTIC...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC
AND SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N53W TO 31N59W TO
30N63W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 25N69W
TO 21N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WEST
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N72W
TO 24N73W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 68W
IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N30W. WEAKER HIGH PRES IS PRESENT W OF
65W ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 34N82W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SW N ATLC IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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