[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATER THIS
MORNING NW OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF AND EXTEND
FROM LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE W GULF THROUGH EARLY THU. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

W ATLC GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT EARLY THU AS THE SAME
COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC. GALE
WARNING WILL BE FOR THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W
OF THE FRONT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N13W TO 1N17W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 4N6W TO 1N19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FAR N GULF FROM NW
MISSISSIPPI INTO THE GULF NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO
28N88W SUPPORTING A 1006 MB LOW OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 29N88W 25N90W TO 21N95W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE FROM 26N86W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE GULF W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE NW GULF AROUND SUNRISE REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED AND EXIT THE GULF ON
WED NIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NW GULF THU NIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON FRI. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON FRI NIGHT REACHING
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO NE MEXICO ON SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING PATCHES OF ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 66W-76W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS LATE THU THEN DISSIPATING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. FRESH N WINDS
EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT ON THU NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH
SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND
TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT.
ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU WHEN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN WED
NIGHT REACHING HISPANIOLA ON FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THU THROUGH
SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS
THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC AND
A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE REGION NEAR 32N37W AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N49W TO 21N58W WHERE
IT DISSIPATES OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE E ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS WED NIGHT THEN EXTENDING FROM
BERMUDA TO E CUBA LATE THU BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKEN FROM
32N59W TO HISPANIOLA ON FRI. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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