[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 076 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN EARLY SAT MORNING N OF 27N WITHIN
150 NM E OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO 21N78W. PLEASE
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT01 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N17W TO 1N30W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-15W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA SUPPORTING AT 07/1500 UTC
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS NEAR 25N80W TO
24N81W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY THEN CROSSING CUBA NEAR
23N82W AND INTO THE THE CARIBBEAN. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE N GULF N OF 24N E OF 93W TO OVER
FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF COAST. DENSE LOW CLOUDS/FOR ARE INLAND
AND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 22N W OF 96W. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS BUILDING S OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE GULF IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT OVER THE GULF W THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE E
THROUGH SUN WHILE WEAKENING ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE W GULF LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE E ORIENTED N TO S AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH TO NEAR 95W MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS N OVER THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 73W WHILE MOISTURE IS MOVING IN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. THE W
ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF ACROSS
W CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF LINE FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT LUCIA TO S OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR
17N68W...INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA
BETWEEN 70W-74W...AND N OF 17N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-77W
INCLUDING JAMAICA. FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH SAT
THEN WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO 20N88W SUN.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL BE FOUND OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING INLAND AND WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-74W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH FAIR CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT COVERING
THE AREA N OF THE ISLAND THROUGH MON. A W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TO OVER E CUBA EARLY SAT WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALIGNING ALONG E/W ACROSS THE ISLAND
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND TODAY THROUGH LATE SUN
INCREASING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING
INTO THE FAR W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N72W ALONG 31N74W ACROSS GRAND
BAHAMA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N71W ALONG
27N76W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO CENTRAL
ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N AND
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND FRONT E OF 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR
27N45W. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA
BY THIS EVENING FROM 31N67W TO E CUBA EARLY SAT THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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