[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 5N4W TO
3N15W TO 2N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 2N21W TO 0N33W TO 0N43W TO 0S49W. CONVECTION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED FROM 0N TO 5N BETWEEN E OF
21W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 22W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WHICH ALONG
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
HIGH SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER VIRGINIA EXTENDS
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST INTO THE GULF AND PROVIDES RETURN FLOW
OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF REGION EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
LATE MON. BY TUE MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY WHILE IT STARTS TO WEAKEN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE STREAM WESTWARD
WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW ENHANCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT W ATLC WATERS IS PROVIDING
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE
TRADES OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE COVER THE REMAINDER BASIN.
OTHERWISE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST N ATLC
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH TAIL EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W. THE TROUGH
ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WHICH SOUTHERN
AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
BEING ENHANCED OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
HAITI. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE
BUT LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER HAITI
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN CUBA AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
DRIFT NE...TRAILING MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND TROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC WHICH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 30N69W TO 25N71W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR
20N75W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH FROM 27N65W TO 24N70W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
19N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 62W-68W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N28W. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE TO BE W OF 60W BY SAT MORNING AND
DISSIPATING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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