[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO
3N20W 2N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N24W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
33W...ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 46W...TO 1S48W ALONG THE COAST OF
BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 2N
BETWEEN 2W AND 7W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 8W AND 14W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 2S TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS FLORIDA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA
BORDER...NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD RIGHT THROUGH MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
30N82W... INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KEHC...KCRH...KVBS...
KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION
IN CORPUS CHRISTI FOR THE LAST OBSERVATION...IN PALACIOS...IN
THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN THE UPPER TEXAS GULF
COAST AT BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE FOUND
FROM PENSACOLA TO MILTON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN MARY ESTHER AND VALPARAISO.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN KEY WEST...AT THE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA
BORDER...NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD RIGHT THROUGH MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N57W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA ALONG 70W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADEWIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE NORTH OF 13N
BETWEEN 75W AND 84W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
78W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N82W IN WESTERN PANAMA...BEYOND
6N86W INTO EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVES HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...SANTIAGO...AND IN
PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN LA ROMANA AND
PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-
PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW IN A TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE OVERALL
48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW THEN BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE TIME AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERN WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY-
TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE IS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 24
HOURS OF THE OVERALL FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS FLORIDA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1014 MB
ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N76W...WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N70W...TO ANDROS ISLAND. THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N73W...JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...TO 22N73W...TO 19N74W NEAR WESTERN HAITI.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N79W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...24N74W...BEYOND 32N69W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 27N65W BEYOND 32N46W. 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.34 FOR
BERMUDA...AND 0.15 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N39W TO 25N40W
TO 17N45W TO 10N48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
30W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 33N6W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1037 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N29W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM
THE 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N29W...THROUGH
32N39W...TO 27N53W...TO NORTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N62W TO 26N72W THEN
STATIONARY TO 23N81W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET
TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM 31N41W TO 22N51W TO 07N55W,

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net