[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 80 NM EAST OF VERO BEACH
FLORIDA HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SE
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...AND EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. INTERESTS ALONG THE FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AND
REFER TO THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N19W TO 9N20W. SAHARAN AIR ENGULFS THIS WAVE
LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N65W TO 9N67W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N74W TO THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 77W MOVING W AT
15 TO 20 KT WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W
THROUGH 10N20W 7N30W TO 5N40W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 5N40W AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N E OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

COMPLEX MID-TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
AND AN ATTENDANT SHEAR/TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS BUILDING
NORTHWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 93W. FAIRLY DEEP
LAYERED ELONGATED ANTICYCLONE OVER GEORGIA AND FLORIDA WAS
SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR
28N89W. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. REMNANTS OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS
ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS SUPPORTING HAZE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. SOME DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE REMAINS FROM EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE EMERGING OFF THE SW
FLORIDA COAST NEAR EVERGLADES CITY EXTENDING ALONG AND WITHIN 60
NM OF THE COAST TO THE TAMPA BAY AREA. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH RETURN LOW OF 15-20 KT ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WHILE A BROAD FLAT ANTICYCLONE AND RIDGING PERSISTS OVER
THE BASIN S OF 15N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED OVER CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA. AT THE SURFACE...TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. EXCEPT FOR THE SW AND E CARIBBEAN WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ABOUNDS...REMNANTS OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR HINDERS DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DUST
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS IS SUPPORTING HAZE ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND A MONSOON TROUGH INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS MAINTAINING
20-25 KT TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 10-20 KT WINDS IN
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
SUPPORTING FAIR BUT HAZY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO SHOULD RESULT IN DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH GENERALLY LESS COVERAGE THAN TYPICALLY EXPECTED.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WAS LOCATED 80 NM E OF
VERO BEACH FLORIDA. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH COVERED THE
ATLANTIC W OF 66W. FURTHER EAST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH FROM ALONG 32N52W
TO 27N60W WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 37N36W EXTENDS WSW
TO 22N55W GENERALLY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


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