[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A LOW LOCATED ABOUT 180 NM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NEAR 30N77W
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN BANDS SE OF THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM PROBABILITY THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N42W TO
7N47W MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING IMAGERY
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR N OF THE ITCZ WHICH IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N58W
TO 7N589W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING
IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 10N. MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N76W TO 10N77W MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE WHICH ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDERS DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE AXIS S OF 14N.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO VERACRUZ COAST OF MEXICO WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N96W TO 13N97W MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS WEAK AND BARELY DISCERNIBLE AS IT MOVES IN THE W-SW PERIPHERY
OF A LOW LEVEL RIDGE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS
CONFINED TO THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GUINEA COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
11N15W TO 7N24W. ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N24W AND CONTINUES TO 6N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-8N
E OF 40W WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 29N86W...AND
SUPPORTING 10-15 KT E TO SE WINDS...EXCEPT W OF 92W WHERE WINDS
ARE UP TO 20 KT. A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS TO THE NW GULF WHILE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO COVERS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION IN THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS NEAR 20N83W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS
INDICATED OVER NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE UPPER LOW. BROAD SUBSIDENCE
AND THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST IS KEEPING MOST OF THE BASIN
UNDER FAIR BUT HAZY CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING 20-25
KT TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 10-20 KT WINDS IN BOTH
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BE REACH THE E CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DRY AIR INHIBITED CONVECTION IN THE AREA
INHIBITED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD
RESULT IN DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH
GENERALLY LESS COVERAGE THAN TYPICALLY EXPECTED.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
32N48W SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 23N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NE FLORIDA DOMINATES THE
FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC W OF 73W. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN BANDS E OF JACKSONVILLE FL. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N42W EXTENDED THROUGH 28N55W
TO THE BAHAMAS SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL

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