[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W
AND 76W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO
11 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. EXPECT
ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W.

THE CURRENT FORECAST CONSISTS OF...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 17N BETWEEN
72W AND 82W. EXPECT ALSO...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. NUMEROUS STRONG IN MEXICO FROM 16N TO
24N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N107W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...TO 22N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N86W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
AND GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W TO 12N19W AND 6N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 6N26W TO 5N31W 6N40W AND TO 9N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND
20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF
6N39W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. NUMEROUS STRONG IN MEXICO FROM 16N TO
24N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N107W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...TO 22N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N83W ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...
TO 26N90W...TO 22N98W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBBF...KVBS...AND KGHB.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...
AND IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. A HIGH CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE
LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE BEING REPORTED IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N
ALONG 94W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 91W AND
94W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON TOP OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP
OF MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN CUBA AND NEARBY WATERS WITHIN 30
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST AND WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO A CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA WITH
A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N82W NEAR
THE COAST OF PANAMA...BEYOND 9N87W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA...AND IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 72W IN VENEZUELA AND 85W IN
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 35N67W TO 30N72W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 32N76W...BECOMING
STATIONARY...AND CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE BORDER OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 30N NORTHWARD FROM 60W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 55W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N50W. A TROUGH IS ALONG 31N46W...TO THE CYCLONIC
CENTER...TO 19N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND AND CONFLUENT WIND
FLOW ARE IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND
60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N43W...TO 30N53W 28N60W 24N68W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
FEET FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 13N TO 21N
TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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