[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 200604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KNOTS. THIS POSITION IS BASED
ON THE SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM AND THE SUNY-ALBANY WAVE
DIAGNOSTICS FROM THE GFS MODEL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM 5N TO 8N
BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. A CYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 32W EASTWARD TO AFRICA. MORE THAN
ONE AREA OF WESTWARD-PROPAGATING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 48W
AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N60W TO 17N57W AND TO
11N56W. SCATTERED STRONG IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 64W
AND 67W.

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 9N20W AND 6N28W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 2N/3N BETWEEN
35W AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO
10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 9N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ACROSS HONDURAS...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 85W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS AND
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 26N BETWEEN 67W AND 86W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 97W/98W...FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS BEYOND 100W IN MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATION...KATP AND KIKT.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AWAY FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING REPORTED AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN IN
MILTON FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...ACROSS HONDURAS...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 750 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF
HISPANIOLA. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 11N56W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 48W
AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N60W TO 17N57W AND TO
11N56W. SCATTERED STRONG IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 64W
AND 67W. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
COVER PUERTO PLATA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO.
RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND A RIDGE RESTS ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
HISPANIOLA RIDGE. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.67 IN
GUADELOUPE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS  AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 12N
TO 14N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS
OF...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 86W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 48W
AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N60W TO 17N57W AND TO
11N56W. SCATTERED STRONG IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 64W
AND 67W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO
26N30W AND 25N48W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N48W TO 31N53W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N53W TO 29N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
29N59W TO 28N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 56W AND 65W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 32N37W 29N47W 28N56W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 33N15W TO 30N20W TO 25N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT CURVES THROUGH 32N18W TO 28N23W AND
31N28W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 25N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N33W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N36W...TO A SECOND 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N44W...TO 25N62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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