[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N46W 9N51W...TO
6N53W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM
16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG
11N73W 10N80W...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W
AND 79W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF SENEGAL NEAR 13N16W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N19W
TO 5N30W AND TO 4N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W
AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N78W...TO A 30N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...TO A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS SPANNING WESTERN
CUBA...CONTINUING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FINALLY
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.36 IN MONTEGO BAY IN
JAMAICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
92W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N
SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 85W
EASTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 101W...FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N73W...TO THE BORDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 26N96W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KGHB...KIPN...K9F2 AND KAXO ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE
VICTORIA-TO-PALACIOS LINE SOUTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING
OBSERVED IN VICTORIA. THE SKIES ARE CLEARING AROUND THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
THAT AREA...LEADING TO BEAUMONT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING OBSERVED AT FOURCHON AND AT GRAND ISLE IN SOUTHEASTERN
COASTAL LOUISIANA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM MARATHON KEY TO THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N78W...TO A 30N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...TO A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS SPANNING WESTERN
CUBA...CONTINUING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FINALLY
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.36 IN MONTEGO BAY IN
JAMAICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
92W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N
SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 85W
EASTWARD.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA
CANA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE
FROM CUBA TO 30N72W. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.17 IN
GUADELOUPE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM
16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG
11N73W 10N80W...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W
AND 79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT TO 30 KT
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11
FEET...FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO
18N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS
OF...THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 86W...
INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO A
28N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N70W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO A 1018
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N61W. THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N68W. A
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N68W TO 29N77W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N54W TO 28N58W TO 23N65W.

THE REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...FROM 24 HOURS AGO...ARE NEAR 26N54W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
40W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N73W...TO THE BORDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 26N96W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N34W...TO 27N59W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND
60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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