[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180613 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

CORRECTION TO THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...AND TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N46W 8N50W...TO 4N53W
IN FRENCH GUIANA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS LOCATED.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N20W TO 4N30W
4N40W AND TO 3N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.36 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W EASTWARD...THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM CUBA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM
76W WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND THE EASTERN SHORES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 29N87W 23N84W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 29N87W
23N84W...FROM THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO WESTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 101W...FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N73W...TO THE BORDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 27N95W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KXIH ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...KVAF...AND
KGUL.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE INLAND SECTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS...IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...FROM
ROCKPORT SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN THE
PENSACOLA FLORIDA AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN VALPARAISO AND DESTIN.
RAINSHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER...HAVE CLEARED UP IN PERRY
FLORIDA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.36 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W EASTWARD...THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM CUBA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM
76W WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND THE EASTERN SHORES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 29N87W 23N84W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 29N87W
23N84W...FROM THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO WESTERN CUBA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO...
PUNTA CANA...AND PUERTO PLATA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE
FROM CUBA TO 30N72W. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.17 IN
GUADELOUPE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N IN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 7N92W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IS FROM 4N TO 9N IN WESTERN COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W
WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 10 FEET...FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE
WEST OF 80W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE 24-HOUR
FORECAST OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 86W...
INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO A
28N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N67W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W...TO A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT RUNS FROM 32N56W TO A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N63W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N67W AND 28N72W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE NORTH
OF 30N42W 24N57W 24N70W.

THE REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...FROM 24 HOURS AGO...ARE NEAR 26N53W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N73W...TO THE BORDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 27N95W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N34W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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