[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N51W TO 12N45W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 02N-13N BETWEEN 40W-51W THAT
COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY GUIDANCE
AND A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 44W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 17N79W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER CUBA. IN ADDITION...GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THE WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH AN AREA
OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AIDING IN SUSTAINING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 77W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
07N20W TO 06N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N23W TO 04N30W TO 04N46W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 19W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING
BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
AND CUBA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF THIS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AND FURTHER SUPPORTS A SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE
NE GULF WATERS NEAR 30N87W. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INFLUENCES PORTIONS OF CUBA AND EVEN EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF 83W THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT W OF
90W AND 5 TO 15 KT E OF 90W. THE SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER AT THE SURFACE N OF 18N W OF 79W. TO THE SE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WITH PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE.
BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING AS A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 80W MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE WAVE ALONG WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 77W-85W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHERWISE...TRADES PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE
RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 67W-82W. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE
BASIN...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STATIC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG
TRADES CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS EVENING HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE ISLAND STILL FINDS ITSELF UNDER
A SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIES TO THE WEST OVER CUBA. THESE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PROVE AMPLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
29N63W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW TO 23N69W. THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N57W SW TO 28N67W THEN W
TO 28N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N60W
TO 26N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150
NM SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER SOUTHWEST HOWEVER...WITHIN THE
INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOCUSED OVER
CUBA...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 21N-
26N BETWEEN 75W-82W...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NW
BAHAMAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 28N ANCHORED
BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N71W. LASTLY...
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDES
INFLUENCE E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
35N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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