[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N37W 8N43W 1N45W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN
44W AND 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 43W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE WAVE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W FROM 15N IN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS LOCATED. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 77W
IN COLOMBIA AND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA...FROM 12N TO 14N...WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE COAST.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N
BETWEEN 77W AND 90W...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N18W AND 4N22W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N22W
4N30W 4N38W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM
40W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST NEAR
30N75W...TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.97 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD...THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM
RADIUS OF 22.5N4W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING PRECIPITATION COVER THE
AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 24N IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE NEAR KEY
WEST FLORIDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 98W...FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N73W...TO 32N80W...ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 29N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO
STATIONS KBBF...THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE INLAND SECTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COASTAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA
INCLUDING NEARBY SMALLER COMMUNITIES...SOUTHWARD. A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT GRAND ISLE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS HAS BEEN
REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS FOR THE LAST HOUR OR
SO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS APALACHICOLA. THE LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS FROM THE LAST FEW HOURS IN BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA HAVE
BEEN CLEARING DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO. RAINSHOWERS WITH
THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE KEY WEST FLORIDA METROPOLITAN
AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST NEAR
30N75W...TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.97 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD...THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM
RADIUS OF 22.5N4W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING PRECIPITATION COVER THE
AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 24N IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE NEAR KEY
WEST FLORIDA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...A
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER
LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
COVER PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEAST-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED
RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.97 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 77W IN COLOMBIA AND
85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA...FROM
12N TO 14N...WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND
90W...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT TO 30 KT
WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11
FEET...FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO
18N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS
OF...THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST
OF 86W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO
28N65W TO 27N73W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N68W...CURVING TO 30N76W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N62W 26N70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N55W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N40W 25N49W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...CURVING TO
27N21W AND 24N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N73W...TO 32N80W...ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 29N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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