[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 00N36W TO 12N31W MOVING W AT 12-15
KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A DISTINCT
MAXIMUM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.  THE WAVE IS APPARENT AT THE
SURFACE AS WELL WITH A PRONOUNCED SE TO NE WIND SHIFT.  THIS
WAVE WILL LIKELY SPEED UP IN MOVEMENT IN ABOUT A DAY AS IT
APPROACHES 40W WITH ACCELERATION BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS BETWEEN 05N AND 10N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM EASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 07N62W TO 17N68W W AT 15-17 KT. THE NW TO SE ORIENTED WAVE
POSITION WAS EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT REPORTED BY SCATTEROMETER AND
BUOY OBSERVATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM NEAR 11N80W
TO NEAR EASTERN CUBA AT 20N75.  THE WAVE WAS RELOCATED WESTWARD
BASED UPON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...BUT REMAINS MOVING
W AT 13-15 KT. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK AT THE SURFACE AS
NO NOTABLE TURNING OF THE WINDS ARE NOTED.  SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF
THE WAVE AXIS SOUTH OF 17N.  THE CONVECTION MAY BE DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  RAINFALL HAS
BEEN NOTED AT SAN ANDRES ISLAND...BLUEFIELDS...PUERTO
CABEZAS...AND JINOTEGA IN NICARAGUA...AND PUERTO LIMPERA...AND
CATACAMAS IN HONDURAS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.  CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE COMBINED
FORCING OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR 15N17W
TO 09N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N22W TO 07N30W THEN RESUMES FROM 05N36W TO 02N47W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH OR THE ITCZ IN THE ATLANTIC.  THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA NEAR FROM 09N78W TO
11N75W IN COLOMBIA.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 29N84W.  SE GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTION MAY BE
LINKED TO A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING MAXIMUM IN MOISTURE OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF DIURNALLY-FORCED
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING TODAY OVER CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AIDED BY RATHER LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.
SOME DRYING IS ANTICIPATED AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH
OF 20N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 78W AROUND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER
TROUGH DIPS INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WITH SW WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT HELPING TO PUMP UP DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NE PACIFIC. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS
FEEDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CARIB N OF 19N W OF 84W. A LESS PRONOUNCED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HELPING TO GENERATE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT
A SURFACE TROUGH MAY FORM SOON WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING
ALONG IT BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS IF CONDITIONS HOLD. FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES...UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES...EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TOWARD THE ISLAND FROM THE W AROUND A
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH
WILL MOVE BY JUST TO THE S OF THE ISLAND THROUGH MON WILL
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION FROM NEAR 31N80W TO
FLORIDA NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 72W. A COLD FRONT IS N OF THE AREA AND NE OF
THE TROUGH. THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
CLIP ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
LITTLE IMPACTS OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...IS NEARLY STATIONARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N34W TO 25N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE N
OF THE AREA NEAR 36N44W TO THE SW THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N65W TO
28N80W NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS W OF 70W AND INSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA/LEWITSKY


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