[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO
8N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN
46W AND 48W...AND IN THE ITCZ FROM 7N SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD IN VENEZUELA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N
TO 7N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...AND ALONG 70W IN VENEZUELA FROM 8N
TO 9N.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA-BISSAU REACHING ITS
COASTLINE NEAR 12N15W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 7N22W 5N27W 5N30W 3N22W. THE ITCZ IS NOT
APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD FROM 34W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N
TO 32N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...COVERING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE IS IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FLORIDA
AND IN PARTS OF WESTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...FROM MISSOURI TO LOUISIANA. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARE
INLAND. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THE TROUGH IS IN SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND 89W.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK IN GENERAL. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N68W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A
1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 20N98W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KGBK...KIKT...KDLP...AND K1B7.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT...WESLACO TEXAS IN THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...AND IN VICTORIA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN FOURCHON AND GALLIANO IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A
LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT PASCAGOULA IN
MISSISSIPPI...AND IN THE MOBILE ALABAMA METROPOLITAN AREA.
MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED
FROM PENSACOLA TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD NEAR
MILTON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND IN VALPARAISO AND MARY
ESTHER. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS BEING REPORTED IN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.
LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING OBSERVED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS
IN APALACHICOLA. IT HAS BEEN RAINING OFF AND ON DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS OF OBSERVATIONS IN PERRY FLORIDA. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING
OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF BROOKSVILLE FOR THE NEXT-TO-LAST
OBSERVATION...AND RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER CURRENTLY ARE BEING
EXPERIENCED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINSHOWERS WITH
THUNDER HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
OBSERVATIONS FROM SARASOTA TO PUNTA GORDA AND TO FORT MYERS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM THE
FLORIDA TROUGH...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N NORTHWARD
FROM 70W WESTWARD. THE WHOLE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
COVERED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TOWARD VENEZUELA. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SECOND
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL FORM...AND ONE WILL END UP
JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE OTHER ONE WILL END UP
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT 420 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF
HISPANIOLA.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
11/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.65 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...0.04 IN MERIDA IN MEXICO...0.03 IN SAN
JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.02 IN TRINIDAD. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. EXPECT EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
14N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 79W AND 80.5W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO
27N52W...TO 14N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 28N50W TO
25N57W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM
25N57W TO 27N63W AND 31N65W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM 24N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 250 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W 27N46W 22N61W.  FROM 27N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 66W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.66 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...AND 0.64 IN
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N26W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN
21W AND 25W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
21W AND 25W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N23W TO 26N34W TO 21N56W AND 21N60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET FROM 9N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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