[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N29W TO 13N28W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. ON VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE WAVE EXHIBITS
CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS WITH GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATING THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN
27W-34W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
03N-07N BETWEEN 28W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N46W TO 11N47W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. WHILE LESS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAN THE WAVE TO
THE EAST ALONG 28W...SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED IN GLOBAL
MODELS BETWEEN 44W-50W. SINCE DYNAMICS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY
BENIGN...SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ
REGION WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N40W TO 06N48W TO 08N55W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N69W TO 12N68W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH GLOBAL MODEL DATA
INDICATING VERY WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
08N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N19W
TO 05N29W TO 05N47W TO 04N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 11W...AND FROM 09N-
12N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-
07N BETWEEN 21W-27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N40W TO 06N48W TO
08N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 85W WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF E OF 85W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BENIGN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 24N84W THAT IS ALSO MOSTLY ENVELOPED IN DRY AIR
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A
1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N83W. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE HIGH CENTER WHERE GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE OCCURRING...ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH...E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING
AND FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
THE MOST MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS REMAINING FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
63W-90W. A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA PROVIDING ENOUGH MID-LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N89W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 11N
BETWEEN 75W-84W IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
ALONG 09N/10N. FINALLY...TRADES PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS POSSIBLE FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 68W-78W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WHILE A RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY STREAMS ALONG 20N FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EASTWARD TO OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR
20N68W. THIS MID-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE...
CLOUDINESS...AND GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
WITH E-SE TRADES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND A RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF THE ISLAND... CONTINUED
ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 37N55W THAT SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 37N56W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
SW TO 32N65W BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 30N/31N TO 76W. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...AND THE ADJACENT ATLC COASTAL WATERS OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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