[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND A
SHORT-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS
FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE
CENTER OF THE LOW IS JUST INLAND NEAR 19N96W. DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...ASSOCIATED TSTMS ACTIVITY DECREASED WHICH ALONG WITH
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS, ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES, OVER PORTIONS OF E-SE MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 2N35W TO 11N32W. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
OUTBREAK ENTERED THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT EARLIER TODAY AND
DISSIPATED THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ITS SIGNAL IT IS
BARELY DISCERNIBLE ON BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM INLAND FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N53W TO 12N53W...MOVING W-NW
NEAR 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE LIES IN THE SW
PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK...WHICH DRY AIR
SUPPORT THE LACK OF CONVECTION E OF ITS AXIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
OF WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW INDICATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE W OF
THE AXIS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED S OF 13N BETWEEN
53W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
7N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W TO E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 3N30W. IT
THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N34W TO 3N46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-12N E OF 21W AND FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 22W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS INLAND SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N96W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS REGION IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 20N W OF 93W AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER SOUTHERN GULF S OF 22N. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS
FROM THE CAROLINAS COASTAL WATERS SW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO
THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF 85W PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN
BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 27N84W. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROVIDING THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GULF WITH E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT. BESIDES THE
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SW GULF...SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE N-NW
BASIN IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INCLUDING
CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS EXTEND TO THESE TERRITORIES ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS N
OF 16N W OF 80...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE SW
BASIN...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 11N W OF 80W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 67W. A TONGUE OF DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN
AIR LAYER OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS
THE BASIN...EXCEPT OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 67W-77W WHERE
WIND INCREASES TO 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE N-NW BASIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS
RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS COASTAL
WATERS SW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE N OF 29N W OF 78W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
30N18W TO 28N26W TO 30N36W WITH NO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE...SURFACE
RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 16N WHICH IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.		
															
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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