[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
VERA CRUZ. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N
TO 19N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W...INLAND AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN 86W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 93W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
OVER THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 30 TO 35
MILES PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL MAY FORM BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY INLAND INTO EASTERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS NEAR THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS, ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES, IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 06/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WERE 0.72 IN VERACRUZ...AND 0.03 IN MERIDA...IN MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W TO THE SOUTH OF
11N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 28W AND
32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS 51W/52W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM
EARLIER AND ALREADY-DISSIPATING RAINSHOWERS...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 51W AND
TRINIDAD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N18W AND 7N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 5N33W
AND IT CONTINUES TO 5N40W...AND TO 4N45W...AND 5N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 28W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THAT ISTO THE
NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W...IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
REACHES THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY BEING CAUGHT UP IN
THE TROUGH THAT CROSSES HISPANIOLA.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE NORTH
OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 6500 FEET. NEW
IBERIA IN LOUISIANA IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET.
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA IS REPORTING
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LIGHT
DRIZZLE IS BEING OBSERVED IN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. TALLAHASSEE IS
REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 6000 FEET. THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
KEY WEST IS REPORTING A HIGH CLOUD CEILING.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N96W.
EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N73W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 16N71W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA ALONG 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN
67W AND 72W COVERING HISPANIOLA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. EARLIER
AND ALREADY DISSIPATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS OF 20N80W NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN CUBA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.19 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.10 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.04
IN GUADELOUPE. 0.01 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...FEW LOW CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER
BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...FEW LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUNTA CANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE
BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST TO WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH THE CURRENT TROUGH. THE
GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.  THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES RIDGE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
06/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.04 IN
GUADELOUPE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM
12.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...PASSING THROUGH 32N78W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N79W 28N80W...TO
26N81W IN FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG IN THE NORTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N TO
34N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 76W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.03 IN
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 31N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 25N58W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N63W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 52W
AND 58W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N16W. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 30N22W 29N27W AND 30N32W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 41W.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENRER
THAT IS NEAR 34N45W...THROUGH 32N53W...TO 28N64W...AND THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENRER THAT IS NEAR 34N45W...THROUGH
30N40W...TO 26N33W AND 28N18W NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS...BEYOND
32N12W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 69W
AND 72W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 48W
AND 56W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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