[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A LOW PRES OF 1003 MB REMAINS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 19.6N 95.3W AT 06/1200 UTC. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO THE N TO NEAR 24N97W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED THIS MORNING WITHIN AROUND 90 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER LIKELY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.
NOW VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT CENTER IS VERY WELL-DEFINED AND
IS TOTALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION NEAR 19.4N
95.8W. A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED BY THE NHC
AT 1055 AM EDT GIVING THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA A HIGH CHANGE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
WHETHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OR NOT...THIS DISTURBANCE
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W FROM 4N TO 11N. THIS
WAVE IS RELOCATED FARTHER W BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N51W TO 5N52W. ACCORDING
TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT FROM UW-CIMMS...
AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
A BULGE OF MOISTURE AS NOTED ON THE TPW ANIMATION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLC OCEAN THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE THEN CONTINUES MAINLY TO THE W TO NEAR 6N23W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W AND EXTENDS FROM
5N32W TO 4N45W TO 5N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
210 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 16W AND 19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 44W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
OTHER THAN THE SURFACE LOW PRES AND TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE MENTIONED ABOVE...MAINLY CLEAR AND FAIR SKIES ARE
ACROSS THE GULF N OF 25N UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1017 MB HIGH
PRES LOCATED NEAR 28N85W. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE
WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW
HALF OF THE GULF OUTSIDE OF THE TROUGH/LOW PRES AREA. WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE MAINLY TO THE NE OF THE LOW PRES DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW CENTER. ALOFT...A
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W
TO 25N95W TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. DRY AND STABLE AIR WITH
SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THIS TROUGHING WHILE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND ACROSS THE GULF S OF 25N.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REGION...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ATLC HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
SUPPORTS THIS ACTIVITY. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS ACROSS HAITI INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 15N75W. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...
MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA LIMITING THE SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION
OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC
MAP FROM 23N73W ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 17N75W. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
MAINLY S OF 10N W OF 80W LIKELY RELATED TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL COMBINE WITH A
MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND LIMITING THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 35N45W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THIS
HIGH TO THE SE TO 25N20W AND ALSO TO THE SW TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS.
AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 55W AWAY FROM THE
TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH SEAS OF 5-
7 FT. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE AREA AND NOW EXTENDS FROM
31N20W TO 30N25W TO 31N34W. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA
INDICATE THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE
SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/
TROUGH PATTERN IS NOTED W OF 60W WHILE MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE REGION E OF 60W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR

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