[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 																												
A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
A SHORT-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 19N94W. THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS OF S-SE MEXICO...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE E OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD OCCUR LATER TODAY BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME HOSTILE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 3N24W TO 11N23W...MOVING W NEAR 15 KT DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK ENGULFS THE NORTHERN
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IN THIS REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS FROM 5N-10N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 4N53W
TO 11N51W...MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER ENGULFS THIS WAVE AGAIN...WHICH RESULTED IN A
REDUCTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN ITS ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-11N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SW OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N12W TO
5N15W TO 5N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N38W TO
EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N49W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-8N E OF 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 18W-23W AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
39W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN N OF 25N BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT. THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THUS PROVIDING WITH E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15
KT TO GREAT PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF IS BEING REINFORCED BY A 1013 MB HIGH
IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N84W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE DISTURBANCE
OVER THE SW GULF...SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SUPPORTS
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND RESPECTIVE ADJACENT WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS FURTHER EAST TO PUERTO RICO AND COASTAL
WATERS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF
18N W OF 80W. A TONGUE OF DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN
WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE...THEREFORE FAIR WEATHER. OVER
THE SW BASIN...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 11N W OF 80W. SCATTEROMETER
WIND DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE
BASIN...EXCEPT S OF 18N BETWEEN 69W-77W WHERE WIND INCREASES TO
20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAINSHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NW BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND ALONG WITH MIDDLE LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS
RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 58W. A MIDDLE
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 32N47W SUPPORTS A
1028 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 35N44W. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF 17N WHICH
IS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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