[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 																												
A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
A SHORT-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 19N94W. THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS OF S-SE MEXICO...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE TO THE E OF
THE CENTER. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD OCCUR
LATER TODAY BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME HOSTILE AGAIN
ON SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN
ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 4N23W TO 11N22W...MOVING W NEAR 15 KT DURING THE
LAST 12 HOURS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK ENGULFS THE NORTHERN
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IN THIS REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-
25W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 3N50W
TO 11N48W...MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER FORMERLY ENGULFING THIS WAVE HAS RETREAT
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
6N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS WEST OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N40W TO EAST OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N49W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-8N E OF 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 17W-22W AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN N OF 25N BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT. THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THUS PROVIDING WITH E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15
KT TO GREAT PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF IS BEING REINFORCED BY A 1016 MB HIGH
IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE DISTURBANCE
OVER THE SW GULF...SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N75W TO 18N78W. THIS DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND RESPECTIVE ADJACENT WATERS.
THESE SHOWERS EXTENDS FURTHER EAST TO PUERTO RICO AND COASTAL
WATERS. FURTHERMORE...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN
ALONG WITH ANOTHER REGION OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N W OF 80W. A TONGUE OF DRY AIR FROM A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE...THEREFORE
FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE SW BASIN...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 11N W OF 79W.
SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS
THE BASIN...EXCEPT S OF 18N BETWEEN 69W-77W WHERE WIND INCREASES
TO 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAINSHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NW BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS RAINSHOWERS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N75W TO 18N78W. THIS DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 60W. A
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 32N47W
SUPPORTS A 1029 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 36N44W.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF
15N WHICH IS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC BETWEEN 52W-60W IS SUPPORTING
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
29N61W TO 27N63W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE
TIME. OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
ATLC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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