[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
																												
AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
22.5N95W TO THE LOW CENTER TO S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 90W-95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 23N. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM. PRESENTLY SURFACE WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH SEAS TO 10
FT. THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN...LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 12N22W TO
04N21W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A STRONG SAL IS ELSEWHERE N OF
THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS FROM
11N47W TO 03N48W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ALSO WELL
DEPICTED BY THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AGAIN A
STRONG SAL IS ELSEWHERE N OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 49W-51W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N26W TO 05N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-12N
BETWEEN 06W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-07N BETWEEN 15W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE S OF 25N WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHILE FAIR SKIES ARE ARE OVER THE N GULF N
OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 25N AND CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE S OF 25N. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
MOSTLY DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE OVER W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...CUBA...
JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N SPREADING E. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLAND. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ...
INSTABILITY...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO TO 23N...SPREADING E. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W TO 26N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE
AZORES NEAR 37N44W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N. THE METEOSAT SAHARAN AIR LAYER
PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS DRY DUSTY AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N
BETWEEN E OF 50W EXCEPT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE N OF
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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